The Victorian Liberal Party has successfully retained the Nepean seat in a significant leadership trial for Opposition Leader Jess Wilson ahead of the approaching state election in November. Liberal candidate Anthony Marsh emerged victorious amidst competition from One Nation and an Independent, after over 50,000 residents on the Mornington Peninsula cast their votes.
Marsh, a former mayor of Mornington Shire, takes over from Sam Groth, the former deputy Liberal leader and professional tennis player, who stepped down from politics in February. With almost 80% of the vote counted, Marsh secured 38.5% of first preference votes; however, this marks a decline of nearly 10% compared to the last election. The Liberal’s loss in support has largely shifted towards One Nation candidate Darren Hercus and Independent Tracee Hutchison, both of whom recorded substantial swings of over 20% in support.
Despite these shifts, Liberals maintained a significant lead, surpassing their nearest rival by over 10,000 votes after preference distributions. Following the announcement of the results, Marsh expressed his gratitude, stating, “It is the honour of my life to be standing here in front of you as the next member for Nepean.” He acknowledged the hard-fought campaign and the support from party members.
The Nepean by-election was seen as a critical assessment of Wilson’s leadership prior to the state election. Wilson thanked the residents, pledging her commitment to fight for their interests. She reiterated her determination by stating, “I have met thousands of you over the past few weeks… I will deliver for you.”
The by-election also served as a crucial evaluation for One Nation, which has garnered increased support in recent months amidst a growing call for change among voters. Preliminary data indicates that around 25% of voters for the Nepean seat chose One Nation as their first preference.
National parties are observing the electoral outcome closely, particularly with a by-election in Farrer set for the following weekend. Former Nationals leader David Littleproud commented on the challenges of comparing the results from the Nepean by-election to federal elections, highlighting the distinct messages conveyed by different electoral contests.
Overall, the by-election results not only reflect the dynamics within the Victorian Liberal Party but also offer insight into shifting voter sentiments that may influence future elections.