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Putin’s Anxieties Grow Over Potential Coup as Russia’s Position in Ukraine Weakens

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Russian President Vladimir Putin is reportedly increasing his personal security measures amid fears of potential assassination attempts or coup plots, as highlighted by a leaked European intelligence report. The document, revealed by multiple media outlets including CNN, suggests a growing paranoia within the Kremlin, exacerbated by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, which has had significant repercussions for Russia.

According to CNN’s analysis, the report indicates that the Kremlin has implemented surveillance measures in the residences of close aides to Putin, alongside a ban on their use of public transportation. This heightened vigilance follows the assassination of Lieutenant General Fanil Sarvarov, head of operational training for the Russian armed forces, who died in a car bomb attack last year.

The war in Ukraine has resulted in substantial setbacks for Russian forces, with the Institute for the Study of War reporting a “net loss of territorial control” in early 2023, the first instance of such a loss since August 2022. Russian military operations have also slowed, with the changing dynamics of warfare complicating year-on-year comparisons.

Russian infiltration tactics, according to ISW, have been utilised to exaggerate claims of territorial control, prompting a revision of mapping data that reveals a smaller territorial gain than previously assessed. Concerns have also emerged regarding the effectiveness of the Russian air campaign, as military bloggers express doubts about the capability to capitalise on enhanced bombing resources.

The report, said to be leaked by a source with ties to European intelligence, indicates that Putin’s regime is increasingly worried about potential leaks of classified information and plots against him, particularly those involving drones. Specific individuals such as Sergei Shoigu, the former Defence Minister now head of the Security Council, have been named as key figures of potential concern, especially after affiliations with embezzlement scandals surfaced.

Putin’s movements throughout Russia have been restricted due to Ukraine’s demonstrated ability to conduct deep strikes, with strict controls imposed on his staff, barring them from using internet-enabled phones. The escalation of the conflict has begun to impact the Russian middle class, with rising casualties, estimated at 30,000 monthly in 2026, along with economic pressures such as increasing costs and internet outages affecting citizens.

While the report sheds light on the Kremlin’s internal dynamics and security concerns, CNN notes that the accuracy of some claims remains difficult to confirm, and there may be geopolitical motives to sow discord within the Russian government. The situation underscores the complexities surrounding Putin’s leadership amid a transforming landscape driven by military, economic, and social challenges.

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