Recent polling data reveals that the Albanese government continues to gain robust support from female voters, contributing to a solid lead over the Coalition. According to a Roy Morgan survey involving 1,500 participants, Labor’s primary support holds steady at 30%, while One Nation’s backing has increased by 3% to 24.5%. In contrast, the Coalition has seen a decline of 1.5%, now sitting at 22.5%. Additionally, the Greens’ support rose slightly by 0.5%, reaching 12.5%.
The survey indicates that Labor leads the two-party preferred vote with 56%, significantly ahead of the Coalition at 44%, with no change in these figures from previous polling. If preferences are accounted for using last year’s federal election data, Labor’s edge narrows to 54% against 46%.
When examining the data by gender, Labor demonstrates a compelling advantage amongst female voters, garnering 61% compared to the Coalition’s 39%, marking a notable rise of 3.5% for Labor and a corresponding drop for the Coalition. Female support thus contributes significantly to Labor’s overall standing. Among male voters, the parties are tied at 50% on the two-party preferred basis. Interestingly, One Nation has gained traction among men, now becoming the preferred party with a primary support increase of 2.5% to 29.5%. Meanwhile, Labor’s primary support among males has decreased to 28%, while the Coalition has slightly improved to 23%.
The overall snapshot from this polling suggests that if a federal election occurred at this time, Labor would likely reclaim government with a clear majority, regardless of the method used to calculate preferences.
Thus, the dynamics of voter sentiment are currently leaning in favour of Labor, bolstered significantly by support from women, while the Coalition faces challenges in retaining its voter base.