Australians dependent on diesel need to prepare for a prolonged period of price increases and shortages, driven by an impending supply crunch. Currently, approximately 87% of Australia’s diesel is imported, making it the largest diesel importer globally. Although the distance has initially buffered Australia from issues arising from crises in the Middle East, experts warn that a significant oil supply shock is on the horizon, particularly due to rising demand in the Asia-Pacific.
IEEFA’s CEO, Amandine Denis-Ryan, noted that if the crisis continues, key diesel exporters in the region could face substantial challenges, potentially needing to cut exports or even import diesel to meet local demand. The situation has already led to diesel prices experiencing greater volatility than petrol prices, particularly exacerbated by tensions such as the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. As of April 2026, diesel prices had tripled compared to the beginning of the year, contrasting with an approximate doubling of crude oil and petrol prices.
Recent trends show an average price of diesel in Australia at about $2.85 per litre, down from a peak of over $3.20 during the Iran conflict. Although prices are currently decreasing, aided by proactive measures from the government, that dynamic may shift. Denis-Ryan indicated that Australia’s geographical position could prolong the crisis effects compared to other nations, but it also provides time to prepare for a potential diesel shortage.
The IEEFA is advocating for increased conservation measures for diesel within industries crucial to Australia’s economy, such as agriculture, mining, and rail transport. This may involve implementing “fuel optimisation” strategies and encouraging the transition to electric vehicles (EVs). There are numerous opportunities to enhance fuel efficiency in road transport through practices like eco-driving, reduced speeds, and improved maintenance, which would not only mitigate potential diesel supply issues but also lessen the financial impact of the oil crisis on businesses.
In summary, as diesel prices continue to fluctuate and geopolitical factors heighten supply concerns, Australians relying on diesel should consider both immediate and long-term strategies to manage their fuel consumption sustainably.