A year ago, Australia experienced a significant political shift as the Albanese government achieved a historic victory in the federal elections, with the Coalition suffering its poorest performance ever, capturing merely 43 seats. This election marked a profound transformation in the political landscape, particularly with the rise of One Nation, which has surged from a marginal party to taking a prominent second place in the polls.
In the last federal election, One Nation garnered just 6.4% of the vote, but recent surveys show its support has skyrocketed to 26% among the primary lower house vote. This substantial leap raises questions about the party’s newfound appeal after years of low turnout. Research by Labor-affiliated pollster RedBridge indicates that financial stress is a critical factor behind this change. Many voters, particularly those identifying as being in a “great deal” of financial strain, are gravitating toward One Nation, particularly across the Baby Boomer, Gen X, and Gen Y demographics, while the Greens resonate more with Gen Z voters.
Interestingly, dissatisfaction with the current political status quo is fuelling this shift. A significant 54% of respondents expressed a desire for change, and 70% of One Nation supporters see their vote as a means to compel major parties to listen to ordinary Australians. This trend reflects a broader electoral discontent, as the share of the primary vote for both Labor and the Coalition has dropped significantly, plummeting to approximately 51% in the most recent polling.
This decline in major party support aligns with rising inflation and declining living standards under the Albanese administration, conditions usually ripe for a strong opposition to capitalise on. Instead, the Coalition has struggled to present compelling alternatives, leading to their historic loss.
As voters increasingly seek more populist and right-leaning solutions due to economic pressures—echoing trends seen in Europe and the United States—One Nation’s rise can be attributed not to an attractive policy platform, but rather to the void left by the major parties. The so-called “K-shaped economy”—characterised by a widening divide where many households experience downward trends—could be driving these shifts in political allegiance, suggesting a potential lurch towards nationalism within Australia’s political context.
In summary, One Nation’s ascent is emblematic of broader trends of discontent and economic distress, pushing many voters to seek alternatives in the face of an unresponsive major party system.