A newly identified asteroid, measuring 100 metres across, poses a slight risk of colliding with Earth, with a 1.3 per cent chance of impact on December 22, 2032. Dubbed Asteroid 2024 YR4, it was first detected by NASA on December 27, shortly after its close pass by Earth. Concerns over the asteroid’s trajectory have prompted global scrutiny, especially given its potential to cause devastation similar to the Tunguska event in 1908, which resulted in extensive forest destruction in Russia.
NASA’s Near Earth Object Studies has noted possible impact zones, including areas over the eastern Pacific and Northern South America. Experts, including Dr Hadrien Devillepois from Curtin University, suggest future observations will likely determine that the asteroid will not collide with Earth, although the timeline for these observations is crucial.
Despite the low probability of impact, the asteroid’s size warrants a strategic response, emphasising the necessity for global collaboration on planetary defence. Technologies to divert asteroids, demonstrated by NASA’s DART mission, have yet to address critical ethical and legal considerations. Leading astrophysicists urge the public to remain calm, pointing out that vast areas of Earth, particularly ocean, are unlikely to be significantly affected. Further assessments are expected in 2028, when the asteroid will again approach Earth.