In the recent election, a notable trend was the rise of teal or community independents, driven by the political crowdfunding group Climate 200. These candidates, primarily focusing on climate action, successfully seized numerous formerly secure Liberal seats, resulting in the largest crossbench in Australian history. A pressing question heading into the next election is whether these independents can maintain their hold on these seats or if they will swing back to the Coalition.
Some incumbents are likely to retain their positions, such as Zali Steggall, who has held Warringah since 2019 and increased her margin significantly. Others, like Helen Haines and Andrew Wilkie, although not classically teal, have strong support from Climate 200. Haines holds a nearly 9% margin in Indi, which has consistently voted independent since 2013, and Wilkie’s seat of Clark has a staggering margin exceeding 20%.
Allegra Spender, representing the ultra-marginal seat of Wentworth, faces a challenging re-election, as does Kate Chaney in Curtin, where her margin is a mere 1.32%. This makes Curtin the most vulnerable teal seat heading into the coming election. The situation in other electorates remains uncertain, particularly due to electoral redistribution which has made margin assessments challenging.
Additional noteworthy races include Zoe Daniel in Goldstein and Sophie Scamps in Mackellar, both of whom face tight contests with estimated margins of around 1.8%. Monique Ryan’s Kooyong is another hotly debated seat, with varying reports on the margin, placing it as a primary target for the Liberals, who have nominated Amelia Hamer for the contest.
Redistribution has also eliminated one independent seat, as North Sydney is no longer in contention, leaving Kylea Tink without a candidate. However, neighbouring Bradfield may present an opportunity with a new teal candidate, Nicolette Boele, challenging the Liberal stronghold after previous incumbent Paul Fletcher’s retirement.
Looking ahead, Climate 200 continues to support several candidates. Notably, Alex Dyson and Caz Heise are competing for seats in more rural areas, displaying a shift from the 2022 teal norm. Both strategists performed well in their previous bids and require modest swings to secure victories this time. Other challengers, like Kate Hook and Erchana Murray-Bartlett, face uphill battles against incumbents and noteworthy former officials.
The election landscape remains dynamic, with independent candidates posing a significant challenge to traditional party politics, particularly in seats previously dominated by the Liberal Party. As the campaign progresses, the outcomes in these key electorates will be crucial in shaping the future of the Australian Parliament.