Recently, astronomers have noted a slight increase in the risk posed by asteroid 2024 YR4, with current estimates suggesting a 2% chance of it colliding with Earth in 2032. However, there’s still a 98% likelihood that it will pass safely. Tracking the asteroid’s trajectory continues, and scientists believe the impact probability may eventually drop to zero as they refine their understanding of its orbit.
Discovered in December by a Chilean telescope, asteroid 2024 YR4 measures between 40 to 90 metres in diameter. NASA’s Webb Space Telescope is set to observe it in March, before it becomes invisible until its next approach in 2028. While the prospect of a strike has stirred curiosity, experts assert that concerns are unwarranted. Paul Chodas from NASA’s Centre for Near-Earth Object Studies remains confident that the odds of impact will decline.
In terms of potential consequences, if the asteroid were to impact Earth, the outcome would vary greatly based on its size. Smaller impacts could cause localised damage, reminiscent of the Tunguska event in 1908, while a larger impact could result in severe consequences. NASA is prepared to explore deflection strategies if necessary, drawing on their previous success in altering an asteroid’s course with the 2022 Dart mission.