AFL analysts are grappling with the rapid decline of Collingwood, the 2023 premiers, who suffered a staggering 64-point loss to Hawthorn, marking their worst defeat this season and second worst under coach Craig McRae. Just a month prior, the Magpies led the ladder, a significant 10 points ahead of their closest competitor.
Following this recent setback, bookmakers have increased their odds on Collingwood winning the premiership to $10, while only Adelaide, Brisbane, and Geelong maintain single-figure odds. The Magpies have won just one of their last five matches and now face the daunting task of playing against the Crows, who sit at the top of the ladder.
Collingwood is at risk of slipping out of the top four—a position vital for their title aspirations. Analysts indicate that by the end of round 22, they may be overtaken by Brisbane and Geelong, potentially dropping them to fourth place. Additionally, Fremantle could level up with Collingwood on points, although they trail in percentage.
McRae expressed disappointment at the team’s performance against Hawthorn, citing a lack of system, effort, and fight, leaving his side vulnerable. He emphasised the need for a strong response in their upcoming match against Adelaide to reaffirm their top-four status. However, many pundits are sceptical about their ability to rebound effectively.
Despite a commendable performance by superstar midfielder Nick Daicos, who recorded 24 touches, the Magpies’ midfield looked weak and was easily exploited by Hawthorn. AFL great David King highlighted the team’s poor defensive efforts, noting their struggles in transitioning the ball and defending effectively.
Concerns about the mix and leadership within the team are echoed by St Kilda’s Leigh Montagna, who observed that Collingwood’s tactics seem disjointed. He pointed out that with many veterans on the list, the team’s leadership should be stronger, yet they appear to lack direction and problem-solving capabilities.
If the Magpies fail to reclaim their form, it could hinder their chances of securing a place in the finals, a challenging position considering the historical context. The only AFL team to win a premiership from outside the top four was the 2016 Bulldogs. Collingwood’s final matches will be pivotal as they strive for a strong finish to the season, especially with looming threats from teams like Adelaide and Fremantle, who are in strong positions to overtake them.