As calls for a ceasefire with Russia gain traction, Ukraine faces a significant loss of strategic advantage in ongoing negotiations. Last August, the Ukrainian military executed a surprising operation across the border, seizing about 1,300 square kilometres of Russian territory, which was crucial for morale and future diplomatic leverage. However, after relentless pressure from Russian forces, enhanced by troops from North Korea, Ukraine has now retreated, retaining only around 30% of the land it captured.
Recent developments have seen Ukraine striving to establish defensive positions along the border to thwart any further Russian offensives into its northeastern regions, particularly following the recent fall of Sudzha, a key location with a pre-war population of 5,000. This setback raises critical political questions for President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his military commanders, particularly about the potential consequences of their strategy in Kursk. Many within the military hierarchy are now second-guessing whether diverting resources for the Kursk offensive was wise, particularly as Russian forces have reclaimed approximately 70% of the territory initially secured by Ukraine.
The situation has become increasingly dire, with forces on the ground experiencing difficulties due to a combination of logistical challenges and Russia’s aerial dominance. Ukrainian troops risk becoming isolated if Russia fortifies its control over supply lines critical for their operations. As combat persists near Sudzha, Ukrainian soldiers express frustration, feeling their leadership missed opportunities for an earlier withdrawal that could have safeguarded combatants and equipment.
President Vladimir Putin has indicated a willingness to discuss a ceasefire, agreeing in principle to a US-proposed 30-day truce, though stipulations are still being finalised. This comes amid a backdrop of intensifying combat, with Ukrainian military leaders divided over the effectiveness of their Kursk campaign. Some argue that the operation diverted Russian forces and relief operations in other areas, yet others lament the loss of precious military resources.
As control of Kursk recedes, many soldiers express pessimism regarding the remaining territory, recognising they have limited bargaining power in any negotiations for reclaimed land. With the introduction of North Korean soldiers into the conflict, Ukrainian troops have reported facing severe challenges, including being significantly outnumbered and hindered by shortages of essential supplies.
As the conflict in Sudzha reaches critical junctures, Ukrainian capabilities have been increasingly diminished, compounded by operational complexities and shifting dynamics on the battlefield. The coming weeks will test both their defensive tactics and the political ramifications of their decisions.