During a recent Delta flight from Salt Lake City to Amsterdam, turbulence shook the aircraft violently, prompting fear among passengers who thought a crash might occur. The incident, which sent people colliding against the cabin’s ceiling and displaced service carts, led to an emergency landing in Minneapolis, with 25 individuals hospitalised. Turbulence can be unexpectedly severe, as seen in various cases globally, including a fatal incident last year involving a heart attack during extreme turbulence on a flight from London to Singapore.
Turbulence is generally caused by disturbances in the atmosphere and can be unpredictable for pilots. It resembles water flowing smoothly down a river until it encounters an obstacle, like a boulder, leading to turbulence. Different factors including mountains, storms, and jet streams can create air disturbances. While passengers usually encounter moderate turbulence as minor bumps, severe turbulence can result in injuries or structural damage to the aircraft.
Between 2009 and 2024, turbulence caused over 200 serious injuries in the US, while fatalities remain rare; the majority can be avoided by wearing seatbelts. However, the prevalence of turbulence appears to be increasing, especially on frequently trafficked routes, likely exacerbated by climate change.
Turbulence forecasting platform Turbli has identified the most turbulent flight paths using extensive data, revealing that major mountainous regions, such as the Andes and Himalayas, often experience turbulence. In the US, flights over the Rocky Mountains are among the bumpiest. Clear-air turbulence, often occurring near jet streams, poses a significant risk as it is difficult to detect and forecast.
As temperatures rise due to climate change, extreme clear-air turbulence is projected to become more frequent. Studies indicate a rise in turbulence incidents, including significant increases over busy routes in the North Atlantic and across the continental US.
Thunderstorms, particularly near the equator, are another substantial source of turbulence, exacerbated by strong vertical air movement. Pilots typically navigate around storms using radar, but sudden outbursts can be challenging to predict.
In summary, even though flying remains the safest form of transportation, the aviation industry is preparing for bumpier skies as climate change alters atmospheric conditions, leading to more frequent and intense turbulence. Improved forecasting abilities now allow for accurate predictions of around 75% of turbulence, highlighting advancements in understanding this complex phenomenon, yet also signalling a need for continuing vigilance in aviation safety.