In recent statements, former US President Donald Trump has demonstrated a growing impatience with Russia regarding the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. While at his Turnberry golf resort in Scotland with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Trump unexpectedly reduced the deadline he previously set for Russia to negotiate a peace deal from 50 days to just 10 to 12 days.
Trump expressed a desire for progress, stating, “There’s no reason in waiting. I want to be generous but we just don’t see any progress being made.” Despite his new deadline, it’s unclear why he is reserving a brief extension before executing threats of imposing severe tariffs on Russian goods and secondary sanctions on nations that continue to purchase Russian oil.
His comments reflect a shift in tone, with Trump increasingly critical of the Kremlin and its leader, Vladimir Putin, following a history of ambivalence. In his remarks, he recounted instances of Russian aggression, highlighting their ongoing military actions that lead to civilian casualties.
While Trump optimistically suggested Russia might respond positively to his ultimatum, historical patterns suggest otherwise. The Kremlin has consistently maintained that it will not cease hostilities until it has achieved its ambitious territorial goals in Ukraine. These goals involve not only territorial annexation but also imposing restrictions on Ukraine’s military and foreign policies.
Experts believe that Trump’s threats, even with their new immediacy, will have minimal effect on Moscow’s strategies, particularly given the existing sanctions that are deemed ineffective by Russian officials. Trump’s proposed tariffs on Russian exports are considered insignificant due to the limited trade volume between the US and Russia.
There are wider implications for the global economy if sanctions on countries buying Russian oil are enacted, considering major importers including India, China, and Turkey. The potential for a surge in crude prices due to instability in oil supply has raised concerns about inflation, particularly in the US.
Kremlin insiders have dismissed Trump’s latest deadlines as part of a broader pattern of empty ultimatums, with officials like Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and political analysts showing public derision for Trump’s approach.
In conclusion, Trump’s revised timeline for sanctions against Russia seems unlikely to alter the Kremlin’s firm stance, as history suggests that such ultimatums have little impact on their long-term strategy. The reaction from Russia has been dismissive, reflecting a long-standing resistance to external pressures.