President Donald Trump has announced a significant trade conference scheduled for Thursday, hinting at negotiations that may alleviate high tariffs impacting both the US and global economies. He took to Truth Social to express optimism about a “major trade deal” with a “big, and highly respected, country,” without revealing specifics. However, speculation points toward potential agreements with nations like India, the United Kingdom, South Korea, and Japan.
Trump’s trade adviser, Peter Navarro, indicated that the UK might be the first to sign a deal, with reports suggesting it could come this week. Such a deal might exempt the US from certain non-tariff barriers and reduce tariffs on aluminium, steel, and autos imposed on the UK. Yet, despite these advancements in negotiations, Trump has stated he’s in no rush to finalise agreements, citing a history of unfair practices that necessitated current tariffs to recalibrate trade dynamics.
Experts caution that while the administration claims to be in advanced talks with multiple countries, actual trade agreements typically require extensive negotiation time, often spanning years. The announcement of a deal may instead reflect a memorandum of understanding, which can temporarily ease tariffs but may not lead to substantial economic benefits in the near future.
The context of these discussions also includes the looming 90-day tariff pause, which is quickly approaching its end. Analysts note that negotiating numerous trade agreements within this timeframe is unrealistic, suggesting that Trump will need to decide soon whether to reinstate tariffs if no agreements materialise. Additionally, Trump’s previous track record raises questions about his commitment to any new trade deals, as he has historically reversed his positions on agreements like the USMCA.
Amidst these trade discussions, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer are set to meet with Chinese officials aimed at easing tensions exacerbated by tariffs imposed on both sides. Although Bessent advised against expecting major outcomes from these meetings, he acknowledged they could be pivotal in reducing the ongoing trade conflict.
Economists are closely monitoring these developments, as high tariffs have already adversely affected the US economy, contributing to its contraction in the first quarter of the year due to businesses anticipating the impact of Trump’s enacted tariffs. Global economic institutions, such as the IMF and World Bank, have raised alarms about the potential repercussions of Trump’s trade policies, predicting a slowdown in economic growth and the risk of recession in the United States.
The forthcoming announcement and ongoing trade discussions will likely draw significant attention as the implications for both the US and global economies remain critical.