Independent candidate Nicolette Boele has taken a narrow lead in the Bradfield electorate against Liberal candidate Gisele Kapterian, just days after initial projections indicated Kapterian would win the seat. According to media reports, Kapterian was anticipated to secure a slight victory in this traditionally Liberal stronghold in northern Sydney.
However, a significant influx of absent, postal, and declaration pre-poll votes has enabled Boele to overtake Kapterian, with the lead standing at just 40 votes as of 3:11pm (AEST). The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) still has 59 ballots yet to be counted, with postal votes having to be submitted by the previous Friday.
Regardless of the outcome, a recount appears likely due to the slim margin, which could delay the final result for several days or even weeks. The AEC typically initiates a recount automatically if the final difference is under 100 votes, although candidates can also request one.
Unlike other teals, such as Monique Ryan and Zoe Daniel, Boele refrained from declaring victory on election night, despite her strong early showing. Boele was considered a serious contender for the seat after the retirement of long-serving MP Paul Fletcher, a prominent moderate within the Liberal Party.
Kapterian had maintained a steady lead throughout the previous week, bolstered by strong postal vote performance. However, Boele has seen a significant narrowing of that lead as additional votes were counted. Notably, the AEC did not process any ballots for the Bradfield seat on the Friday in question.
If Boele is ultimately successful, she would become the 10th independent member in the lower house, potentially leaving the Coalition with only 43 seats. As the situation continues to evolve, both candidates await clarity on the final count.