Severe weather is set to impact the central and eastern regions of the United States this week, with potential for severe thunderstorms and life-threatening flooding threatening millions. This follows a recent spate of storms that claimed seven lives across the central US and spread to the east coast. Areas already affected may face new threats of violent weather from late Tuesday into Wednesday.
Currently, April typically marks the increase of severe thunderstorm activity, but this year has seen unusually frequent intense weather, with over 3,200 reports of tornadoes, hail, and damaging winds from January to March. The impending storm is anticipated to exacerbate this tally.
A significant storm system is expected to emerge from the Rockies, intensifying as it moves into the Plains on Tuesday. As it approaches, the cold side will generate snow in the northern regions, while thunderstorms threaten areas further south. The Storm Prediction Centre (SPC) has indicated a multi-day severe weather outbreak could commence Tuesday afternoon, lasting overnight.
On Tuesday, parts of Texas to Iowa are under a Level 2 risk for severe thunderstorms, escalating to a Level 3 risk for Kansas, Oklahoma, and Missouri. As storms migrate eastward on Tuesday evening into Wednesday, they could produce damaging winds, hail, and potentially strong tornadoes particularly across Kansas and Oklahoma. The severe weather outlook on Wednesday intensifies further, potentially affecting up to 42 million people across a vast area from Texas to the Great Lakes, with the SPC issuing a Level 4 risk for areas of the Mississippi Valley.
Wednesday morning may see residual showers in the Midwest, with worsening conditions anticipated as storms move eastward later in the day. Severe thunderstorms could develop in the Mississippi Valley, creating a risk for damaging winds, hail, and robust tornadoes, particularly during nighttime hours, which can be more deadly.
Alongside these storms, substantial rainfall is expected, posing a significant flooding risk. A persistent front is set to funnel moisture from the Gulf into the Mississippi and Ohio valleys for days, leading to what some forecasters are calling a potential “generational” flooding event across regions including Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, and Mississippi. The Weather Prediction Centre warns of a notable flooding threat from Wednesday to Saturday, with some areas potentially seeing rainfall totals exceeding 40 cm.
The upcoming heavy rain event underscores a troubling trend of increasing extreme precipitation events resulting from climate change. As warmer global temperatures contribute to more significant weather extremes, the frequency of overwhelming rainfall is likely to rise. Recent history, such as last week’s heavy rainfall in South Texas, reflects this ongoing issue, resulting in fatalities and widespread flooding. The upcoming week could see many experiencing the dangers of severe weather as conditions continue to evolve.