Ukraine’s recent indication of openness to a ceasefire presents a complex dilemma for Russia. The Kremlin now faces the challenge of whether to accept a truce, potentially relinquishing opportunities for further territorial gains, or to reject the offer, risking the stability of its tentative relationship with the United States.
President Vladimir Putin has consistently dismissed the idea of a temporary cessation in hostilities, arguing it would primarily benefit Ukraine and its western allies by allowing them to regroup militarily. He has emphasised the need for a comprehensive and long-lasting peace agreement rather than a mere pause in fighting. The Kremlin adopted a cautious stance towards Ukraine’s acceptance of a US-endorsed truce during discussions in Saudi Arabia, indicating that it requires more clarity on the dialogue before forming a response.
Putin’s reluctance stems from the Russian military’s current dominance on the battlefield, where it has made notable advances over the last year. Conversely, Ukraine has sought to regain the initiative through surprise operations aimed at diverting Russian forces, but such pursuits have strained its resources and threatened its defensive positions.
Furthermore, Putin contends that an enforced truce would merely afford exhausted Ukrainian troops an opportunity to rest and resupply, rather than leading to genuine peace. He has reiterated that any resolution must focus on eliminating the fundamental issues provoking the conflict, including the threat that NATO’s military presence poses to Russian security. The Kremlin is adamant that no NATO forces should oversee any peacekeeping efforts.
Among the conditions Russia could propose for a ceasefire could be a halt to foreign arms supplies to Ukraine or a leadership change within the Ukrainian government. Russian officials argue that any peace deal must include lifting Western sanctions and unfreezing Russian assets. There’s speculation that Putin might also advocate for elections in Ukraine, ideally following the lifting of martial law, which could realign Ukrainian policy towards a pro-Russian stance.
Experts suggest that Putin is unlikely to outright reject the ceasefire proposal; rather, he may accept it conditionally to maximise Moscow’s interests. This situation adds complexity to the negotiations, especially as both Ukraine and Russia seek to align their strategies with US political dynamics. While there are signs that Russia has achieved significant political leverage through these negotiations, observers warn that any ceasefire contemplated by Moscow might not align with Ukraine’s or European aspirations, highlighting the intricate balance of power involved in these discussions.