NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) have significantly eased fears concerning Asteroid 2024 YR4, which was previously classified as the most dangerous asteroid. Current assessments indicate that the probability of it impacting Earth in December 2032 is nearly non-existent. NASA pegs the risk at a mere 0.0017 per cent, while the ESA estimates it slightly higher at 0.002 per cent, translating to roughly a 1 in 59,000 chance. This means there is an impressive 99.9983 per cent likelihood that the asteroid will pass without incident in seven years.
The asteroid, first detected on December 27, 2022, measures between 40 and 90 metres in width—comparable to a large building. Although it could cause local destruction if it were to collide with Earth, the latest observations have played a crucial role in refining its trajectory. Initial data pointed to a 1.7 per cent risk of the asteroid hitting the Moon, but this poses no threat to Earth.
Richard Binzel, a professor of planetary sciences at MIT and creator of the Torino Scale, attributed the quick adjustment of the asteroid’s risk profile to dedicated astronomers worldwide, who have conducted ongoing observations. Binzel expressed surprise at the rapid reduction of risk assessments, stating that it was essential to avoid prolonged uncertainty regarding the asteroid’s potential threat.
Due to ongoing refinements in calculations, the asteroid now holds a 0 rating on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, indicating that the likelihood of a collision is effectively zero. Observations from several telescopes, including those in Hawaii and New Mexico, have enabled astronomers to determine the asteroid’s characteristics more accurately, thereby crucially lowering the uncertainty regarding its future trajectory.
The ongoing vigilance in monitoring Asteroid 2024 YR4 will continue, with the James Webb Space Telescope scheduled to observe it soon in a bid to refine our understanding of its orbit and size further. Overall, while the asteroid retains a degree of interest due to its size and potential impact risk, current assessments provide strong reassurance that there is no significant threat to Earth.