Matthew Lloyd, a former star of Essendon, suggests that Geelong’s new acquisition, Bailey Smith, has a flaw hindering his status among the AFL elite. While Lloyd acknowledges Smith’s significant contributions this season, including being a frontrunner for the Brownlow Medal, he believes Smith might need to adopt a more measured approach.
Leading the league with an average of 31.5 disposals and 691.1 metres gained per game, Smith’s statistics are impressive. However, this efficiency is tempered by his high turnover rate of 6.1 per game, ranking him among the bottom players in this regard. His disposal efficiency stands at 62.2%, placing him poorly among midfielders who have played six or more games in the current season.
Despite these drawbacks, Lloyd notes that while Smith has bolstered Geelong’s performance, he has polarised opinions, especially when compared to other midfielders like Marcus Bontempelli. Lloyd points out that Smith is still within the top ten midfielders but does not break into the top three or four because of his frequent turnovers.
Described as a “game-breaker” due to his ability to break lines, Smith’s unforced errors can undermine his contributions on the field. It is evident that while he possesses valuable skills, his playing style could benefit from improved decision-making, particularly given the pressure of high-stakes matches.
Lloyd feels that these issues may not be easily rectifiable during the season. Historically during his strong 2022 season, Smith averaged 3.8 turnovers and maintained a higher disposal efficiency of 65.7%. Hence, Lloyd speculates that Smith’s current struggles may stem from ingrained habits rather than a lack of technique.
Geelong great Jimmy Bartel also weighed in, noting that errors are common among high-contested players like Smith, whose efficiency can drop under pressure. He argues that while some midfielders exhibit lower disposal efficiencies, the context of their plays—typically under duress—plays a crucial role.
Bartel points out that Smith, at only 24 years old, is still developing and may gain more comfort and precision over time. He believes Smith’s kicking technique is generally solid; instead, the focus should be on refining his decision-making processes as he matures as a player.
In summary, while Bailey Smith has made a considerable impact at Geelong, both Lloyd and Bartel agree that improving his decision-making and minimising turnovers will be essential for him to reach the heights of the AFL’s most elite midfielders.