With three months remaining in the AFL season, Hall of Fame forward Matthew Lloyd has identified three teams that stand out in the race for the premiership. He believes the competition has been notably top-heavy, with roughly nine teams vying for a finals spot, unless Carlton, Port Adelaide, or Sydney dramatically improve their performance.
At the top of the ladder, Lloyd is confident that Collingwood, Geelong, and Brisbane are the only contenders he can rely on to seize the championship. These teams have a track record of success, as they are the most recent premiership winners, and Lloyd regards them as a class above their competitors like Adelaide, Hawthorn, and Gold Coast. In his assessment on Nine’s Footy Classified, he stated, "I can’t mount a case for anyone else," endorsing the trio as the primary challenges for the title.
Brisbane has previously faced challenges in their pursuit of success but finally captured the premiership in 2024, illustrating how prolonged effort can pay off. Lloyd remarked on Adelaide’s inconsistency, noting that they have not consistently reached the finals. He did express some cautious optimism about GWS, indicating they might make a surprising run in the latter part of the season.
His critique of teams like Hawthorn highlights their inconsistency and deficiencies, particularly in the forward line and midfield depth, which raises doubts about their championship viability.
However, it’s essential to recognise that the AFL landscape is unpredictable. Last season’s ladder after round 15 showcased surprising outcomes, with teams like Carlton and Essendon sitting high but failing to qualify for the finals, while Brisbane occupied 10th place and eventually claimed the premiership.
The previous season also saw teams that were low on the ladder, such as Sydney, GWS, and Carlton, rise to play finals, with Carlton even making it to the preliminary round. This unpredictability makes the closing months of the season particularly exciting as any team could still make their mark.
In summary, as the season unfolds, the dynamics among teams may shift, and while Lloyd has narrowed his predictions down to three frontrunners, the historical unpredictability of the AFL ensures that the race for the premiership remains wide open.