As the federal election approaches, numerous opinion polls indicate that the Labor government is likely to lose seats, despite a recent uptick in two-party preferred voting. However, national trends do not fully depict the dynamics at play in individual electorates. While some seats are challenging, there are promising opportunities for Labor to reclaim seats from the Coalition that could aid in securing a second term.
A key target for Labor is Menzies in Melbourne’s north-west, currently held by Liberal MP Keith Wolahan. Following redistribution, it is now a notionally Labor seat with a narrow margin of 0.42 per cent. Gaining Menzies would significantly bolster Labor’s re-election prospects, especially as the Coalition focuses on outer suburbs for potential victories.
Deakin is another closely contested seat, held by shadow housing minister Michael Sukkar, who faces a slim margin of only 0.02 per cent after experiencing a 4.5 per cent swing against him in 2022. A similar trend would be disastrous for his re-election.
In Perth’s northern suburbs, Labor sees an opening in Moore, where former Liberal MP Ian Goodenough will run as an independent after failing to secure preselection. Labor requires a modest swing of 0.91 per cent to gain this seat.
Sturt is also on the radar, with incumbent James Stevens witnessing his margin thin from 6.9 per cent in 2019 to just 0.45 per cent currently. Labor’s prospects in Sturt are bolstered by a strong local candidate, Claire Clutterham.
In Tasmania, the government has identified Bass as a crucial seat, though challenging to unseat Liberal MP Bridget Archer, who retained her electorate amid difficult circumstances for the Coalition. Neighboring Braddon also remains a target for Labor but poses significant hurdles due to its larger margin.
In New South Wales, Labor hopes to reclaim Fowler and Banks, with Banks appearing more winnable at a 2.64 per cent margin. The failure of Labor’s preselection strategy in Fowler in 2022 allowed independent Dai Le to seize the seat, complicating Labour’s path back.
Despite Queensland being less of a battleground for Labor’s seat retention—holding only five of 30 electorates—there are still key areas of interest, such as the retirement of LNP long-standing MP Warren Entsch in Leichhardt. Additionally, inner-Brisbane seats held by the Greens could present opportunities depending on preference flows in three-way contests.
A successful recovery of even a couple of seats could provide Labour with crucial leverage heading into an election in which losses are anticipated in New South Wales and Victoria. Conversely, should the LNP reclaim seats they previously lost, it would strengthen their position significantly as elections draw near. The coming days will reveal where teal independents may expand their influence from the last election.