The latest YouGov poll indicates that Labor is set to achieve an impressive electoral victory this Saturday, potentially expanding its majority to as much as 84 seats. According to YouGov’s final MRP model for the 2025 federal election, Labor is forecasted to secure 52.9 per cent of the national two-party preferred vote, while the Coalition trails at 47 per cent.
Paul Smith, YouGov’s director of public data, remarked on the significant turnaround in campaign dynamics, noting that earlier data from February suggested a probable Coalition victory. The current findings suggest that Labor is expected to perform strongly, particularly in outer suburban and regional marginal seats, which historically play a crucial role in determining the outcome of Australian elections. Notably, these were areas where the Coalition had been leading just a few months prior.
YouGov’s model anticipates a variety of potential outcomes on election day, projecting that Labor could secure between 76 and 85 seats. Additionally, the final Resolve poll, released earlier this week by the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, also shows the ALP with a 53-47 lead over the Coalition in two-party preferred terms, marking a broader lead than what was seen in the previous election.
Overall, these polls suggest a marked shift in voter sentiment, potentially signalling a decisive victory for Labor.