Recent polling data indicates a renewed swing toward the Albanese government, although a hung parliament remains the most probable outcome. Independent researcher Roy Morgan’s latest survey, conducted between March 3 and March 9, reveals that if a federal election were held today, 51.5 per cent of voters would support Labor, compared to 48.5 per cent for the Coalition, reflecting a two per cent increase for Labor and a two per cent decrease for the Coalition since the last poll.
Despite these numbers favouring Labor, it appears that neither major party would secure a clear majority without relying on support from minor parties or independents; however, Roy Morgan suggests that Labor might have a slightly better chance of forming a government.
In the breakdown of primary votes, the Coalition has seen a decline of three per cent, bringing their total to 37 per cent, whereas Labor’s primary vote has risen by 1.5 per cent to 30 per cent. Meanwhile, the Greens’ primary vote remained stable at 13.5 per cent. One Nation’s support has climbed to five per cent, “other parties” have increased to four per cent, and independents have kept steady at 10.5 per cent.
Roy Morgan’s CEO, Michele Levine, pointed out that several factors may have influenced these polling results, including the approach of Tropical Cyclone Alfred and the presence of Chinese warships around Australia, along with the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Levine noted that during times of international turbulence and natural disasters, support for the incumbent government tends to rise, reminiscent of trends observed during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic.
This week, significant electoral shifts have been noted in Queensland, Victoria, South Australia, and Tasmania, contributing to the overall positive result for the Albanese government.