Japan is facing an unprecedented population decline, losing over 900,000 people in a single year—its largest recorded drop. According to the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Japan’s population has decreased to 120 million, continuing a 16-year trend that began after it peaked at 126.6 million in 2009. Contributing factors include a sluggish economy, entrenched gender roles, and a consistently low birth rate.
The demographic crisis is amplifying challenges to social services, particularly pension and healthcare systems, which struggle to keep pace with an ageing population. In 2023, nearly 30% of the population was aged 65 or older, while births fell to a record low of 687,689, and deaths soared to 1.6 million. The working-age demographic, defined as individuals aged between 15 and 64, represented just 59% of the total population, considerably lower than the global average of 65%.
Despite various government initiatives to encourage childbirth and support families—such as maternity subsidies and promoting paternity leave—reproductive rates continue to decline. Many socio-economic factors, including high living costs, stagnant wages, and a traditional work culture, deter young people from forming relationships or starting families.
This complex issue is compounded by Japan’s patriarchal social structure, where women are often expected to assume primary caregiving roles. This dynamic has resulted in fewer single-parent families compared to Western nations, limiting opportunities for couples to share responsibilities equally.
With no immediate solution to this demographic decline, experts suggest that historic levels of immigration could serve as part of the answer. Although traditionally resistant to immigration, Japan has initiated policies aimed at attracting foreign workers, such as a digital nomad visa, leading to a record increase in foreign residents, now at 3.6 million.
Projections indicate that Japan’s population could shrink by 30% by 2070, although this decline may slow somewhat due to rising immigration rates. However, even a significant increase in births won’t immediately reverse the trend, as the current birth rates would still lead to a further prolonged decline until the population balance shifts to a healthier young-old ratio.
In conclusion, while Japan’s policymakers are making concerted efforts to address the demographic crisis, deeply rooted cultural and economic barriers remain substantial challenges, leaving the nation to grapple with an ageing society and shrinking workforce for the foreseeable future.