The ongoing trade tensions instigated by the US president’s aggressive statements, including the suggestion of making Canada the 51st state, have spurred a notable rise in Canadian nationalism. This surge has been beneficial for the Liberal Party, allowing them to regain momentum in the lead-up to the upcoming parliamentary election. Former Quebec Premier Jean Charest highlighted that the overarching question of this election revolves around determining who will be the best candidate to confront such provocative rhetoric from President Trump.
Historically, foreign policy has not shaped a Canadian election to this extent since 1988, which saw debates focused on free trade with the US. Prime Minister Mark Carney, who assumed leadership following Justin Trudeau’s resignation, has seen his party’s fortunes shift dramatically due to Trump’s criticisms, which were perceived as threats to Canada’s economic stability and sovereignty. Carney described the situation as not just an economic crisis, but an existential threat to Canadian identity and welfare.
Surprisingly, Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre was previously viewed as a likely successor for prime minister until the political landscape shifted under the weight of Trump’s assertions. Despite Poilievre’s alignment with a more subdued approach to the threat posed by Trump, his party remains critical of the Liberals, urging voters to reject what they term a “lost Liberal decade.”
Charest, advocating for a more temperate stance from Trump, posed a rhetorical question about the repercussions of such bluster on international allies. He expressed a desire for the White House to reconsider the global consequences of its actions. Meanwhile, Carney has accused Trump of damaging the historically close relationship between Canada and the US, highlighting concerns about the aforementioned economic threats.
As both Carney and Poilievre plan to renegotiate the free trade deal if elected, Carney has set forth a strategy to diversify Canadian exports, indicating a more global approach. Interestingly, much of Canada’s trade still heavily favours the US, with about 80% of exports directed there. This has raised questions about the feasibility of diversifying trade, with former Foreign Minister John Baird pointing to the challenges of shifting any significant portion of trade away from such a dominant partner.
Polls have shown a dramatic turnaround from earlier in the year, where the Liberals were trailing significantly behind the Conservatives. The latest results indicate the Liberal Party has managed to gain a slight lead, reflecting shifting sentiments as the election approaches. As the election date nears, the impact of US-Canada relations on Canadian politics remains a focal point of discussion among voters and political analysts alike.