The Greens face a significant setback in Queensland, seemingly poised to lose the three seats they clinched during the 2022 election, despite a slight increase in their primary vote from 12% to 12.67%. This decline marks a stark contrast to their previous success, when they secured a notable four-seat victory in Queensland, leading some to refer to it as ‘Greensland.’
Current polling suggests that Labor candidates are likely to reclaim the Brisbane seat, where incumbent Greens MP Stephen Bates is trailing significantly with just 27.1% of the vote behind Labor’s Madonna Jarrett. In Griffith, the numbers indicate a close contest with Labor leading at 35.1% compared to the Greens’ 33.3%, endangering Max Chandler-Mather’s position, which he previously held with a comfortable margin.
Although the Ryan seat is still too close to call, it remains competitive, with Liberal candidate Maggie Forrest leading by a narrow margin over the Greens’ Elizabeth Watson-Brown. Labor’s participation has intensified the contest, having targeted the state after entering the race with limited representation in Queensland. This three-way battle has proven challenging for the Greens, particularly following their losses in the recent state elections, where they also faced a swing against them.
Conversely, the Greens have achieved a noteworthy victory in Victoria, winning the seat of Wills with a 10.78% swing towards them. Candidate Samantha Ratnam triumphed over Labor incumbent Peter Khalil, marking a significant win for the party in this electorate.
Amidst these electoral shifts, Greens leader Adam Bandt appears set to maintain his Melbourne seat, holding a strong lead. However, the party must now scrutinise the reasons behind their losses in Queensland, especially given their expanded policy framework focusing on economic inequality and housing affordability. Their efforts to distinguish themselves from Labor—including proposing rent caps—may have contributed to tensions in parliamentary negotiations.
Allegations have also been levelled against the Greens regarding their political engagement with the Israel-Palestine conflict, with claims of misinformation fuelling antisemitism and extremist rhetoric. This controversial stance may have impacted their reputation during this election cycle.
In summary, the Greens are currently navigating a mixed electoral landscape, grappling with potential losses in Queensland while celebrating significant gains in Victoria, prompting an urgent reassessment of their strategies and policies.