With the federal election looming, the focus for both major parties is achieving 76 lower-house seats, the threshold for a governing majority in Australia. Currently, the Labor Party holds 77 seats, allowing them to lose just one to retain control; any further losses would jeopardise their government position.
Meanwhile, the Coalition, led by Opposition Leader Peter Dutton, aims to regain a majority after holding only 53 seats in the last parliament. Although recent redistributions suggest they could occupy 57, they still need to overturn 19 seats to secure a majority, posing a significant challenge.
To remedy this, the Coalition’s first step is to target ultra-marginal seats held by Labor. Key targets include Bennelong, a seat historically held by the Liberals, and Gilmore, which was closely contested in the last election. Other notable targets include Lyons in Tasmania and Lingiari in the Northern Territory, all of which feature narrow margins.
Winning just five out of seven highlighted ultra-marginal seats could significantly bolster the Coalition’s position. Beyond immediate marginals, Dutton is focusing on the outer suburbs, acknowledging that suburban voters, especially those impacted by rising interest rates, represent a crucial demographic. Seats in Victoria and New South Wales, like Aston and Dunkley, are pivotal in this strategy, especially given recent shifts in voter sentiment.
In addition to Victoria, New South Wales presents vital opportunities, particularly in Western Sydney, where contested seats such as Parramatta and Reid have narrow margins. Robertson, a historically bellwether seat, and Shortland further highlight the Coalition’s focus on securing suburban support.
South Australia offers a mixed landscape, with Boothby being a significant target for the Coalition, especially given its recent marginal status after Labor’s win. Notably, Nicolle Flint is making a political comeback to contest this seat, which has historical significance for both parties.
In Queensland, the Coalition has limited options but may eye Blair, which has shown previous electoral swings favouring the Liberals. Additionally, the newly created seat of Bullwinkel and closely situated electorates present potential opportunities for the Coalition.
As the election date approaches, both parties are keenly assessing strategies to consolidate and regain critical seats that may determine the government’s future. Tomorrow’s focus will shift to Labour’s approach in securing their position.