In this upcoming federal election, Gen Z and Millennials are set to outnumber Baby Boomers for the first time, with 7.7 million young voters against 5.9 million Baby Boomers, according to the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC). Additionally, Gen X contributes approximately 4.4 million votes. This year, nearly 700,000 first-time voters, mainly younger Australians, will cast their ballots, indicating a record registration rate of 97.8%.
Experts suggest that young voters are more likely to support the Greens and Labor, with sociologist Jim Reed noting a shift in political loyalty among these demographics. Voter preferences reveal an interesting gender divide—42% of men intend to vote for the Coalition, compared to 34% of women, reflecting varied responses to policies and communications from the parties.
Recent polling indicates that the Coalition holds a lead with 39% of first-preference votes compared to Labor’s 25%, while Peter Dutton is leading as the preferred prime minister. Despite this, Reed warns that the election outcome remains uncertain, hinting at the possibility of a minority government—a rare situation in Australia, which has seen only two such instances in the last century.
Labor’s attempts to engage young voters may be hampered by ineffective messaging, as Dutton’s campaign seems to resonate more on platforms like TikTok. Ongoing economic issues such as rising interest rates and the cost of living, alongside criticisms surrounding the contentious Voice to Parliament referendum, have potentially diminished the popularity of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.
As the election date approaches, anticipated shifts in voter sentiment may lead to a more defined choice between party leaders, suggesting that the current polling landscape could change significantly before Australians head to the polls. The ultimate election date has yet to be confirmed, but it is expected before May 17, laying the groundwork for what could be one of the most competitive elections in recent history.