Recent developments in Europe have sparked a significant shift in defence policies, driven by a response to geopolitical tensions and criticism from the United States. The situation has been likened to a Coup de théâtre, awakening Europe to its own defence needs in light of varied global threats and past reliance on American military support.
The term “Zeitenwende,” meaning “turning point,” has been invoked frequently, particularly after Russia’s aggressive actions in Ukraine. Germany, once hesitant regarding military expenditure, has taken a bold step forward by scrapping its constitutional “debt brake” under incoming Chancellor Friedrich Merz. This move is set to unleash up to €600 billion (approximately AUD $1 trillion) for national defence over the next decade, indicating a monumental policy shift for a country historically cautious about military spending.
Experts note that Germany’s decision marks a pivotal change in Europe, highlighting its newfound readiness to shoulder its defence responsibilities. This awakening, however, has been partly attributed to the perceived inadequacies of American support, particularly noted by European lawmakers who have voiced their concerns.
Countries like France are also reconsidering their strategic capabilities, with President Emmanuel Macron proposing to extend the protection of its nuclear arsenal to allies and engaging in discussions regarding European nuclear policy. Meanwhile, Poland and Baltic states have stepped up their military postures, including plans to produce landmines after withdrawing from the 1997 Ottawa treaty.
Military conscription is seeing a resurgence throughout Europe; Denmark plans to include women in mandatory service, while Poland intends to ensure military training for all adult males. Even traditionally neutral countries, such as Ireland, are contemplating more robust military policies, hinting at a broader re-evaluation of national security strategies across Europe.
Nevertheless, while many nations are taking steps toward heightened military readiness, the continent remains divided in its approach. Discussions initiated by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen for increased joint defence spending have faced resistance, showcasing differing perceptions of threats based on geographical positioning. Nations farther from Russia, like Spain, voice different concerns than those closer to the conflict zones, raising questions about a unified European defence strategy.
Concerns over military procurement have also arisen, with countries like Portugal reconsidering purchases of American-made military jets in favour of European alternatives, reflecting a shift towards self-sufficiency in defence capabilities.
Though the recent changes signal a wake-up call for Europe, experts advise that true cohesion in defence policies may remain an elusive goal, with essential leadership needed from key countries like Germany and France. As one analyst aptly put it, Europe may have woken up, but the journey toward a fully prepared and united defence strategy is just beginning.