With the federal election approaching, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s Labor government holds 78 seats in the House of Representatives, while the Coalition has 55, and 16 are occupied by minor parties and independents. Notably, 51 of the 150 electorates up for election are classified as marginal, meaning they have a margin of less than 6%.
Among the 10 closest seats that may significantly influence the election outcome, the first is Deakin, held by Liberal MP Michael Sukkar with a razor-thin margin of just 0.02%. Sukkar won the seat by a mere 375 votes in 2022, and faces a strong challenge from Labor’s Matt Gregg this time.
Next is Bennelong, previously a Liberal stronghold, now held by Labor’s Jerome Laxale, who has a precarious margin of 0.04%. Laxale, who made history by being only the second Labor MP to win in 74 years, may struggle to retain his seat due to boundary changes that have made it notionally Liberal.
Fiona Phillips holds the seat of Gilmore with a margin of 0.17%. This seat saw a fierce contest in 2022, where Phillips won by just 373 votes against former NSW state minister Andrew Constance, who will run again.
The Menzies seat, held by Liberal Keith Wolahan, stands at a margin of 0.42%, now notionally favouring Labor after a redistribution that could enhance its winnability for the government.
In the closely-fought seat of Hughes, Liberal MP James Stevens won by a thin margin of 0.45%. He faces Labour’s Claire Clutterham in what is likely to be another tight race.
Independently held Wentworth is remarkable with Allegra Spender at 0.58%. While some analysts suggest her support has strengthened, the AEC has her marked as marginal, leading to varied interpretations of the actual situation.
Shifting focus to Moore, held by Liberal Ian Goodenough with a margin of 0.91%, the seat could become complicated after the ex-MP announced his candidacy as an independent, potentially affecting the Coalition’s hold.
In Tasmania’s Lyons, Labor’s Brian Mitchell is stepping down, opening the field for rising star Rebecca White to contest the seat, which has been held by Labor but is competitive with Liberal Susie Bower having lost to Mitchell by a narrow margin last election.
Lingiari, in the Northern Territory, is one of Australia’s biggest electorates, currently represented by Labor’s Marion Scrymgour, who won the seat by 0.95%. She is set to face police officer Lisa Siebert from the Country Liberal Party this election.
Canning is another tight contest, where Liberal Andrew Hastie holds his seat with a margin of 1.2%. Seen as a key battleground in Western Australia, the seat has shifted from a more comfortable 3.59% margin previously, with Labor’s Jarrad Goold challenging.
As the election unfolds, these seats will be closely monitored, highlighting the shifting dynamics within Australia’s political landscape.