NASA has identified an asteroid, 2024 YR4, with a 3.1% chance of colliding with Earth in 2032, the highest probability recorded to date. Discovered last December, this “city killer” asteroid has garnered attention from astronomers who are closely monitoring its trajectory. Although NASA previously estimated its collision probability at 2%, experts urge calm, citing that the chances may fluctuate as more data becomes available. Bruce Betts, chief scientist at the Planetary Society, reassures there’s no immediate cause for panic, as increasing odds are often temporary.
2024 YR4 measures between 40 to 90 metres in diameter, comparable to a large building, though significantly smaller than the 10-kilometre asteroid that caused the extinction of dinosaurs 66 million years ago. Although it poses a regional threat if on a collision path, continuous observation is vital. Astronomers have a limited window to study the asteroid before it fades from view in April. To refine its measurements, the James Webb Space Telescope will be directed towards 2024 YR4, enabling further analysis once it’s beyond the range of Earth-based telescopes. This initiative aims to clarify the asteroid’s characteristics and trajectory, potentially reducing any threat it may pose.