Over the King’s Birthday long weekend, a significant cold snap hit several parts of Australia, leaving millions feeling the chill. States such as New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia, and Tasmania faced plummeting temperatures, with Queensland also experiencing a sudden drop in conditions. Residents were warned to prepare for minimum temperatures falling between five to ten degrees below the usual seasonal averages.
Despite this cold start to winter, forecasts from the Bureau of Meteorology indicate that much of Australia can expect warmer than average temperatures over the next three months. Specifically, cities like Sydney, Perth, and Melbourne, along with various regions in Victoria and Western Australia, have over a 50% chance of experiencing unusually high maximum temperatures from June to August. Furthermore, many areas are predicted to have significantly warmer minimum temperatures throughout the winter season.
The icy conditions felt at the beginning of June are just a momentary fluctuation in the broader seasonal pattern. The recent cold snap was merely one week in a thirteen-week winter period. According to climate scientist Andrew King from the University of Melbourne, such natural variations are common, and this year’s abrupt drop in temperatures might catch many off guard, especially after a generally mild autumn.
King explained that although climate change has led to a trend of warmer average temperatures historically, pockets of cold weather are still expected from time to time. Acknowledging that many people are accustomed to mild winter conditions, he noted that the early weeks of winter often encounter cold snaps that feel particularly stark.
Looking ahead, the outlook suggests that winter will predominantly remain warmer than average across Australia. Data from the Bureau reveals that the previous autumn was the fourth warmest on record since records began in 1910. Notably, Victoria experienced its warmest autumn ever, while New South Wales and Western Australia recorded their second warmest, and South Australia its third.
Emeritus Professor David Karoly of the University of Melbourne and the Climate Council emphasised the increasing frequency of record high temperatures compared to cold extremes, noting that, while last weekend’s cold spell was accurately forecasted, long-term seasonal predictions have proven more challenging due to the chaotic nature of climate systems.
Overall, while the recent mid-winter chill may surprise many, it fits within the natural weather variations experienced in Australia’s climate landscape, which is trending towards warmer conditions as the season progresses.