Australia appears poised for a minority government ahead of the upcoming election, despite Anthony Albanese’s growing lead over Peter Dutton as the preferred prime minister, according to a recent Newspoll. While both major parties have seen a slight uptick in their primary votes, the Coalition leads Labor with 39 per cent to 32 per cent. Support for smaller parties like the Greens and One Nation has remained steady.
On a two-party-preferred basis, the Coalition stands at 51 per cent, slightly ahead of Labor at 49 per cent. Nevertheless, this margin indicates that neither party is likely to secure a majority in Parliament. Albanese enhances his position as the preferred leader, dominating Dutton with a 47 per cent to 38 per cent advantage.
This poll’s release followed Albanese’s visit to southeast Queensland in response to the flooding caused by ex-cyclone Alfred, as well as the Labour Party’s convincing victory in the recent Western Australia elections. This success adds momentum to the Labor campaign, particularly as a survey revealed that 55 per cent of respondents expressed uncertainty regarding a Dutton-led Coalition government.
The flooding disaster compelled Albanese to postpone calling the election originally set for last weekend, thereby delaying Labor’s preferred date of April 12. Voters will now head to the polls in May, a change that presents both challenges and opportunities for Labor.
Western Australia is becoming increasingly significant for the federal elections, as Labor’s gains there in 2022 helped it secure a majority. The popular re-election of Premier Roger Cook means Albanese will have a strong local figure to campaign alongside during the federal election period.
However, the shift in election timing may not favour Labor as beneficial recent developments—such as the first interest rate cut of the term, positive GDP figures, and the WA election outcome—might not resonate with voters when they cast their ballots in May. Additionally, the upcoming March 25 federal budget could further overshadow these achievements.
In summary, while Anthony Albanese appears to strengthen his leadership position, the looming election context reveals a complex landscape for both major parties, hinting at a potentially fragmented parliamentary outcome.