As winter approaches, Australians have experienced unseasonably warm autumn weather, marking the hottest March on record and temperatures in April exceeding the average by one degree. The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has released its long-range forecast, indicating that this warmer-than-normal trend will persist through winter. Expect above-average maximum temperatures across many regions, including Sydney, Perth, Melbourne, and parts of Victoria, with more than a 50% chance of unusually high daytime temperatures from June to August. Additionally, warmer overnight temperatures are anticipated throughout the country.
While most of Australia faces a warm winter, the rainfall outlook differs across regions. The BoM predicts a 60-80% chance of above-average rainfall for much of inland Australia and certain southern areas. Conversely, typical rainfall levels are expected for regions such as western Western Australia, much of Victoria, and parts of the east coast. Western Tasmania is likely to receive the highest rainfall, followed closely by south-west Western Australia. Major cities like Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane have a 75% chance of accumulating between 100-200mm of rain during the season.
When it comes to snowfall, the BoM does not provide long-range forecasts due to the unpredictable nature of Australia’s snow season. However, noted weather patterns can impact snowfall, such as the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Currently, the SAM is in a positive phase and expected to remain so for much of May, which is not favourable for snow, while the IOD is projected to remain neutral, limiting the chances of significant snowfall.
As winter progresses, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is forecasted to remain neutral, a scenario typically beneficial for substantial snowfall. Nevertheless, predicting snowfall remains challenging, and for the most reliable information regarding snow conditions, skiers and snowboarders are advised to consult the Bureau’s alpine weather forecasts for up-to-date information.
In summary, this winter is set to be characterized primarily by high temperatures, varied rainfall, and uncertainty surrounding snowfall, reflecting a changing climate landscape.