Western Australia is set to hold a state election today that is anticipated to secure a third consecutive term for the Labor Party. The Liberal Party, led by Libby Mettam, faces an uphill battle requiring a substantial voter swing to regain power.
The backdrop to this election is the remarkable victory Labor achieved in 2021, when, under the leadership of then-premier Mark McGowan, the party won 53 out of 59 lower house seats, amassing nearly 70 per cent of the two-party preferred vote. This was not only the largest majority in Western Australia’s history but also the most decisive win in any Australian electoral contest. The Liberals were left with just two seats, effectively reducing their standing to a junior opposition party.
Following McGowan’s resignation in 2023, Roger Cook has taken over the leadership of both the state and the Labor Party. While he doesn’t rival his predecessor’s popularity, Cook consistently outshines Mettam as the preferred premier in polling. Recent surveys indicate Labor holds a strong 57-43 lead over the Liberals, although this reflects a nearly 13 per cent swing against them. Even this substantial swing would still translate to the second-largest majority in state history.
The Liberals, however, require a massive swing of around 25 per cent to reclaim government. Cook has tempered expectations regarding another significant victory, indicating satisfaction with just over half of the support.
Despite Western Australia boasting the nation’s healthiest economy, largely driven by natural resources and a $3.2 billion budget surplus, it grapples with issues familiar across the country. Rising costs of living, a strained health system, unaffordable housing, and escalating crime rates are pressing concerns. Mettam has highlighted these challenges, particularly in relation to soaring housing prices and dwindling rental availability in Perth.
Housing has become a focal point during the election, with various promises including Labor’s plan to raise the stamp duty exemption threshold for first-time buyers. Additionally, the ongoing problem of ambulance ramping continues to plague the government, a concern Cook previously flagged while in opposition.
All political factions have pledged significant investments in healthcare should they secure victory. While Labor is favoured to win today, the election’s outcome will be closely scrutinised nationally, especially with a federal election on the horizon. The performance of WA Labor could influence Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s government, which benefitted from strong support in the state during the 2022 elections.
Polling stations will open at 8am (AWST) and close at 6pm, marking a pivotal moment for Western Australia’s political landscape.