Three years after Russian President Vladimir Putin initiated his invasion of Ukraine, which has become Europe’s most significant conflict since World War II, his strategic objectives appear to be within reach. This marks a stark contrast to the expectations at the outset of the “special military operation” on February 24, 2022, which was anticipated to result in a swift Russian victory. Instead, the war has resulted in extensive casualties among troops and civilians, left millions of Ukrainians displaced, and devastated numerous cities.
Putin’s international standing has plummeted, with sanctions heavily impacting the Russian economy. However, a shift in US political dynamics this month, particularly under the Trump administration’s rapprochement with Russia, may provide Putin with a rare diplomatic victory. Matthew Sussex from the Centre for Defence Studies at the Australian Defence College notes that this change in US strategy could help mitigate the adverse effects of economic stagnation threatening Russia.
While discussions between US and Russian officials in Saudi Arabia foreshadow a possible diplomatic thaw and peace negotiations, Sussex warns that such a realignment could have broader implications for European security and NATO unity. He highlights a recent shift in American perspectives, as US officials suggest that Ukraine’s NATO aspirations may no longer be realistic and that internal threats to European stability might be a greater concern than external ones.
The strained relations between Trump and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy further complicate matters, with mutual criticisms indicating a growing rift. Sussex argues that these developments are viewed by Putin as a significant triumph, potentially emboldening him to consider additional military actions in Eastern Europe, such as against Moldova or Georgia.
Despite this, Sussex acknowledges that Ukraine’s resilience has significantly degraded the effectiveness of Russian conventional forces, giving European nations crucial time to bolster their defences. While Trump’s enthusiasm for a peace settlement in Ukraine is evident, negotiations are still in their infancy, and experts believe Putin is not in a hurry, predicting that he might benefit from Western disunity and decreased support for Ukraine.
As the geopolitical landscape evolves, any outcomes that reflect a weakening of Western resolve would signal a successful outcome for Putin, solidifying his influence in the region.