South Korea’s declining birth rate has long been a concerning trend, impacting its military strength amid growing regional tensions. A recent Defence Ministry report revealed a substantial 20% decrease in military personnel over the past six years, reducing troop numbers from 563,000 in 2019 to 450,000. The report highlighted “complex factors,” such as population decline and changing attitudes towards military service, particularly regarding the treatment of soldiers, which has been critiqued as harsh.
In contrast, North Korea maintains a considerably larger military with approximately 1.3 million soldiers, almost tripling South Korea’s figures. Despite this numerical advantage, North Korea is also grappling with its own demographic problems and a decline in birth rates post-pandemic. Nonetheless, North Korea has dispatched thousands of troops to support Russia in the Ukraine conflict, raising concerns about potential exchanges of military technology with Moscow.
Experts argue that while North Korea may appear militarily strong, South Korea retains advantages in technology and reserves, with a trained force of about 3.1 million men. South Korea’s military strategy may need to pivot away from sheer numbers towards enhanced technological capabilities. Many in the defence community suggest utilising advanced tools like drones and AI to offset personnel shortages.
As of 2023, South Korea’s military strategy includes a relatively small number of female personnel compared to North Korea, which conscripts women to fill workforce gaps. This raises questions about gender inclusivity in South Korea’s military structure. Some suggest expanding enlistment to include women could address manpower issues, although it remains a contentious topic.
Cultural attitudes towards military service in South Korea play a crucial role in recruitment. Issues like bullying and harassment in the military have tarnished its reputation, resulting in fewer applicants for professional forces. The government has introduced measures to improve conditions, such as permitting limited access to cell phones for conscripts, but these changes have yet to yield significant results.
Experts believe that maintaining and enhancing military readiness in South Korea will become increasingly difficult as the population continues to decline. By the 2040s, sustaining a force of 350,000 may pose formidable challenges. Therefore, a strategic approach focusing on technological advancements and improved personnel welfare is essential for the future viability of South Korea’s military.