Politicians from both major parties in the United States are advocating for the continuation of the AUKUS security pact, which is focused on supplying Australia with nuclear-powered submarines. This is encouraging for Australia, which has been actively strengthening its alliance over the past few weeks.
Recently, the Department of Defence announced a review of the AUKUS pact, initially established by Joe Biden four years ago with Australia and the UK. The Trump administration is scrutinising this partnership, viewed by many as essential for countering China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific region, with a completion of the review expected in the fall.
During a congressional hearing last month, former Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison expressed concerns about the rising threat from China. Support for Australia has emerged across the political spectrum in the U.S. Notably, Representatives John Moolenaar and Raja Krishnamoorthi stressed the importance of AUKUS for enhancing deterrence and undersea capabilities crucial for regional stability.
Currently, the Trump administration is grappling with the need to recalibrate its global security posture while facing limitations in its shipbuilding capabilities. Elbridge Colby, a Pentagon official leading the review, has voiced doubts regarding the feasibility of producing enough submarines to ensure both U.S. and allied needs.
The AUKUS deal, which is set at $US269 billion, includes plans for the U.S. to supply Australia with three to five Virginia-class submarines, with the first delivery anticipated by 2032. However, challenges in American shipbuilding could jeopardise this timeline, as recent reports highlight production issues resulting in insufficient capabilities to fulfil both domestic and allied demands.
Compounding these issues, the U.S. Navy has been struggling with workforce shortages and has only been producing 1.2 Virginia-class submarines annually since 2022, leading to potential long-term shortfalls for the Navy should Australia proceed to acquire the vessels.
Despite the challenges, Australia has committed substantial investments—$US1 billion to enhance the U.S. submarine industrial base and a shared goal of $3 billion to further this cause. Such contributions aim to improve production rates and maintain low transit times for their submarines.
Collaborative efforts are evidenced by joint advances in underwater communications and technology between the three nations, with assurances from Australia to bolster its defence spending for these initiatives.
Experts recognise the importance of the AUKUS alliance for both regional and U.S. strategic interests, suggesting that the partnership does not merely benefit Australia but enhances the collective deterrence capabilities of the involved states. Lawmakers from both sides of the aisle in the U.S. have thus far remained supportive of AUKUS, citing initiatives to strengthen the U.S. submarine industry as critical for maintaining security commitments.