By 11pm next Wednesday, Billy Slater’s coaching future will hinge on State of Origin III in Sydney. The Queensland icon’s decisions prior to the match could earn him accolades or ridicule, depending on the outcome.
Slater has already made bold moves this series, notably following Queensland’s 2024 loss, where they were defeated by a determined New South Wales team at Suncorp Stadium. Deciding to break the mould, he made several controversial selections, the most surprising being the inclusion of 10-game NRL rookie Robert Toia, who will face off against renowned player Latrell Mitchell.
Toia’s defensive performance has been commendable; he made an impressive 24 tackles in the first match and 20 in the second, significantly outperforming Queensland’s left centre in terms of defensive efforts. These numbers validate Slater’s first risky choice.
Further shaking things up, Slater made headlines by dropping seasoned captain and halfback Daly Cherry-Evans, marking a bold move not seen in nearly three decades. Cameron Munster took over the captaincy, a decision that was met with scepticism given Munster’s checkered history, but it proved to be a masterstroke as he delivered an outstanding performance in the second game, helping Queensland level the series.
Despite calls for adjustments, Slater retained Grant as hooker and kept Jeremiah Nanai and Pat Carrigan on the bench before game two. Reflecting on his strategy, he surprised many with the announcement of further unexpected selections, including Gehamat Shibasaki and the return of veteran Josh Papali’i.
Slater’s choices encompass significant gambles that have changed the series’ dynamics. Comments from former Blues coach Phil Gould highlighted Queensland’s knack for luck, suggesting that the “football gods” favour them.
While Slater’s counterpart, Blues coach Laurie Daley, has opted for stability, remaining unchanged after the second game defeat, Slater’s dramatic decisions are significant. Queensland has only performed well in one half across the series, with NSW currently favoured to emerge victorious in the final match.
Slater has wisely focused all his efforts on this decisive game, embracing the idea of “go big or go home.” His assistant, Josh Hannay, remarked on the critical nature of this match, as losing would have serious ramifications.
Despite the pressure, the potential for Slater to lead Queensland to an unlikely victory would transform his tenure into one of the most remarkable coaching feats in the history of the Origin series. A win could solidify his legacy, while failure might bring doubts about his position as coach in the future.