In a recent address at a security forum in Singapore, U.S. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth expressed concerns about the “imminent” threat posed by China towards Taiwan, urging Australia to recognise the seriousness of the situation. His remarks triggered diplomatic tensions, leading China to label the U.S. as the “biggest troublemaker” in the region. Analysts, such as Malcolm Davis from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, assert that Hegseth’s warnings reflect urgent realities, suggesting that China is actively preparing for potential military action against Taiwan within this decade.
Taiwan, a self-governing island, has long been the centre of a geopolitical struggle between the U.S. and China, with the latter asserting its claim over Taiwan and hinting at the use of force to regain control. Washington has maintained a policy of providing Taiwan with military and political support, yet without formal commitments to intervene in the event of an attack.
The implications of a Chinese offensive against Taiwan extend beyond immediate military concerns, as nations across the Indo-Pacific fear that such actions could destabilise regional order. Economically, a conflict over Taiwan would disrupt global supply chains, particularly in the semiconductor industry, where Taiwan plays a crucial role. Control of this sector would significantly strengthen China’s position and hinder Western tech industries.
Should tensions escalate to military action, Australia would likely face mounting pressure to align with the U.S. and other allies in countering China’s aggression. Currently, U.S. military forces are stationed in Australia, and during heightened conflict, these assets could expand operations from Australian territory. The U.S. has also urged its regional allies to bolster defence spending in response to China’s assertiveness.
Hegseth has called for Australia to increase its defence budget to 3.5% of GDP, while the Australian government has committed an additional $10 billion towards defence by 2033. However, experts caution that the urgency of the Chinese threat necessitates faster responses. Davis emphasised that if China succeeds in taking Taiwan, it would significantly enhance its ability to assert influence over the Indo-Pacific, thereby directly impacting Australia’s security landscape.
In summary, as tensions surrounding Taiwan escalate, Australia must critically evaluate its defence posture and consider bolstering military readiness to respond to potential conflicts in the region.