The Australian Defence Force (ADF) faces significant risks of unpreparedness for both present and future challenges, as highlighted in a recent report from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI). The study stresses that the slow roll-out of necessary funding and capabilities threatens ADF’s ability to respond effectively to emerging threats.
According to ASPI’s annual Cost of Defence report, increased funding for the ADF is crucial to align with the real challenges Australia currently encounters. While the government has touted a “generational investment in Australia’s defence”, the reality is that substantial funding increases are delayed and may not materialise until after the 2028–29 financial year. This has raised concerns about the ADF’s ability to acquire essential new military capabilities in a timely manner.
The report critiques the stark disconnect between the urgent nature of contemporary threats and the prolonged timelines associated with the development and procurement of critical military resources. The slow pace of this process has the potential to leave the ADF ill-equipped to handle both current threats and anticipated future challenges, creating what the researchers describe as a “no man’s land” of military readiness.
Despite a recent $50 billion funding boost announced in last year’s federal budget and $1 billion advanced in this year’s national accounts, the ASPI report cautions that significant enhancements to defence capabilities won’t be expected anytime soon.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese responded to the ASPI’s findings, labelling the criticisms as “predictable” and defended the government’s approach to defence spending. He highlighted ongoing strategic reviews, substantial investments, and an increase in defence expenditure to 2.4% of GDP as part of their commitment to bolster Australia’s military capability. Albanese also suggested that ASPI should reflect on its own conduct in future debates.
The report also brings attention to the increasingly uncertain global landscape exacerbated by the recent actions of US President Donald Trump. ASPI’s executive director, Justin Bassi, noted that the unpredictability of US foreign policy, particularly under Trump’s administration, has added to global tensions. The report shed light on how major powers, including Russia and China, are disregarding the international rules-based order, further complicating Australia’s defence outlook.
In conclusion, the ASPI report underscores a critical need for timely investment and responsiveness in Australia’s defence strategy to effectively meet the growing challenges on the world stage.