This week, there was speculation about a potential meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Turkey, contingent upon Putin’s attendance at a summit he himself proposed. Excitement around this possible face-to-face encounter has diminished as the Kremlin’s delegate list failed to include Putin’s name, prompting CNN to seek clarification on his expected absence. Russian officials have been preparing various justifications for this potential scenario.
While immediate outcomes from such talks are unlikely, a direct confrontation, whether at a high or low level, would represent a significant moment in their ongoing conflict. The two leaders have not engaged directly since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022. The initiative for these talks reportedly stems from an ultimatum issued by Ukraine’s European allies, who demanded a ceasefire from Russia or face new sanctions. Instead of addressing the ultimatum, Putin proposed “direct talks,” a move seen by some as a delay tactic that may have backfired.
Initially resistant to negotiations without a ceasefire, Ukraine’s stance changed with encouragement from US President Donald Trump, who urged Zelensky to seize the opportunity and suggested he would attend if it proved beneficial, a notion embraced by the Ukrainian leader. However, recent reports indicate that Trump has no plans to travel to Turkey, which dashes hopes of his involvement.
If Putin does not attend, it may undermine his narrative questioning the legitimacy of Zelensky’s government. Many believe that such a conspicuous absence would reinforce perceptions that Russia is uninterested in genuine peace negotiations, a notion Trump has started to question recently.
Should the talks occur, the topics under discussion remain uncertain, as both leaders have opposing needs. Zelensky has stated that a deal outside of an unconditional ceasefire would be a failure, while Putin points to deeper issues such as Ukraine’s sovereignty and NATO’s expansion that he claims need addressing. These points are non-negotiable for Ukraine and its supporters.
The two countries last engaged in direct talks back in spring 2022, amidst failed Russian military objectives, leading to offers from Moscow that would have severely compromised Ukraine’s sovereignty. Reports of war atrocities committed by Russian forces have since only solidified Ukraine’s resolve against negotiation without concrete terms favouring their independence.
As discussions unfold, the Kremlin has indicated other high-ranking officials will lead their delegation if Putin is absent, highlighting the potential for a more technical dialogue rather than a decisive diplomatic exchange. Navigating these complicated dynamics will be vital for both sides as the stakes continue to rise. Meanwhile, Turkey’s willingness to mediate reflects its complex relationship with Russia and its unique position within NATO.