Off the coast of Oregon, a significant undersea volcano named Axial Seamount is exhibiting signs that an eruption may be imminent, according to scientists. Sitting nearly a mile (1.4 km) underwater on a geological hotspot, Axial Seamount channels magma from Earth’s mantle up to the crust. This region, part of the Juan de Fuca Ridge, is where the Pacific and Juan de Fuca tectonic plates constantly separate, leading to a build-up of subsurface pressure.
Researchers from the National Science Foundation’s Ocean Observatories Initiative have noted an alarming increase in seismic activity, with several hundred earthquakes occurring daily. While this is considerably lower than the activity levels seen before previous eruptions, it suggests that magma accumulation is ongoing. William Wilcock, a marine geophysicist at the University of Washington, estimates that an eruption could happen anytime between now and early 2026, but the timing remains unpredictable.
In a previous eruption in April 2015, around 10,000 minor earthquakes were recorded in just 24 hours. That event saw magma flow seeping for a month, covering a distance of approximately 25 miles (40 km) across the ocean floor. The magma chamber of Axial Seamount has previously collapsed, forming a caldera while giving rise to diverse marine life that thrives around hydrothermal vents—underwater hot springs releasing nutrient-rich gases.
These vents create unique ecosystems where life can rapidly rebound even after devastating eruptions. Debbie Kelley, director of the Regional Cabled Array, pointed out that despite lava flows that can incinerate local sea life, the affected ecosystems can regenerate within months, showcasing the resilience of life forms in these harsh conditions.
Interestingly, eruptions from Axial Seamount are usually not explosive, meaning that people on land may not notice them, as there are typically no ash clouds or significant surface disturbances. Kelley likened a potential eruption to a “mile of seawater on top of Kilauea,” suggesting that it might result in some lava fountaining with minimal surface impact.
The volcano’s relatively shallow magma chamber, about a mile beneath the seabed, implies that most volcanic activity on Earth happens underwater, particularly in areas like the Juan de Fuca Ridge. As the observatory prepares to livestream the next eruption—an unprecedented move—scientists remain keen to deepen their understanding of these remarkable underwater volcanic settings, which are pivotal in the global geological processes shaping our planet.