Recent polling from YouGov indicates a surprising landslide victory for Labor in the upcoming federal election, with projections suggesting the Coalition could face its smallest representation in 80 years. This seat-by-seat analysis, informed by over 35,000 voter interviews in April, shows Labor holding a lead of just under 53% to the Coalition’s 47% in two-party preferred terms, aligning with other surveys that similarly reflect a 52-48 or 53-47 split.
YouGov predicts that Labor could secure between 76 and 85 seats, with 84 as the most likely outcome, a significant increase from their current tally of 78. Conversely, the Coalition is anticipated to lose seats, potentially ending up with a minority of 45 to 53 MPs, translating to a loss of approximately seven seats and marking its smallest minority in terms of seat percentage since the Liberal Party’s inception in 1946.
Paul Smith, YouGov’s public data director, highlighted that Labor’s position has dramatically shifted since February when data suggested a Coalition win was likely. He noted that Labor is expected to perform strongly in crucial outer suburban and regional seats, traditionally pivotal in Australian elections. This is concerning for Coalition leader Peter Dutton, who has been focusing on these electorates as a strategy for reclaiming government.
As election night approaches, Dutton has returned to his own seat in Dickson, which is the most marginal in Queensland, amid challenges from both Labor and independent candidate Ellie Smith. Despite declining public poll numbers for the Coalition throughout the campaign, Dutton has referred to internal polling suggesting the Liberals and Nationals may still clinch essential marginal seats.
As of now, YouGov’s modelling indicates that while some Queensland seats may change hands, Dutton is projected to retain his seat. This campaign has stirred significant anticipation as the electorate prepares for a potential shift in power dynamics.