This year’s Australian electoral map reveals a significant change from 2022: one seat is no longer in play due to the process of redistribution. Redistribution reshapes electoral boundaries between elections, ensuring equal representation in a democratic system.
As a consequence, the current federal election will see 150 seats, a decrease of one from the previous election. New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia, and the Northern Territory have all experienced boundary adjustments. Notably, Western Australia has gained a new seat called Bullwinkel, named in honour of World War II nurse Lieutenant Colonel Vivian Bullwinkel, reflecting its growing population. Conversely, New South Wales and Victoria have each lost a seat, with North Sydney and Higgins being the areas affected.
The implications of these changes affect various parties differently. While Labor has seen a seat abolished in Higgins, the new Bullwinkel seat has a notional 3.35 per cent margin favouring Labor. However, the most notable loss has been that of North Sydney MP Kylea Tink, who opted not to contest the election amid a competitive landscape featuring several prominent teal independents.
The redistribution has altered the electoral margins, reshaping contests in numerous seats for the upcoming election. For example, in Sydney, the Bennelong electorate has incorporated previously Liberal-leaning areas from North Sydney, flipping it to a marginal Liberal seat despite a slight 0.04 per cent buffer. Meanwhile, Menzies in eastern Melbourne has shifted to a notional Labor seat, although the sitting MP is Liberal.
Conditions have become tighter for some incumbents due to the changes in boundaries. Labor’s hold in the Chisholm seat has diminished, narrowing from a 6.4 per cent to a mere 3.3 per cent margin, increasing the chances of a Coalition win. At the same time, Shadow Defence Minister Andrew Hastie’s margin in Canning has shrunk from 3.6 to 1.2 per cent, reflective of the shifting political landscape.
Overall, the redistribution has resulted in various electorates entering the election with markedly different competitive dynamics than two years ago, offering substantial opportunities and challenges for the political parties involved. As each party strategises for the election, the reconfigured boundaries will undoubtedly play a pivotal role in shaping the outcomes of many closely contested seats.